Fed, ECB Interest Rates, U.S. Consumer, Global Outlook: Eco Day – Read more @ https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2018-05-14/fed-ecb-interest-rates-u-s-consumer-global-outlook-eco-day
Market now pricing in four interest rate hikes this year
- Traders are now assigning a 51 percent chance of a fourth interest rate hike, in December, according to the CME.
- Fed officials currently are indicating three hikes total, but that could change in June as the unemployment rate continues to fall. Read More @ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/market-now-pricing-in-four-interest-rate-hikes-this-year.html
WHAT IS THE USD INDEX SAYING?
USD well supported @ 92.50; today the price movements starts as the FED is clearly going to increase interest rate to reduce stress on inflation. Overheated stock market need to stop with free money everywhere. Be cautious if you are trying to short the USD.
TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL CHARTS.
- 9.30am – RBA – This set of forecasts was little changed from the previous set of forecasts we released three months earlier. This is because the economy, both domestically and globally, has been evolving generally in line with our expectations. When reading through the Bank’s forecasts, I think it is useful to avoid false precision. An important question to ask is: are these revisions to the Bank’s outlook consequential for the monetary policy decision? Sounds dovish but neutral. AUD takes a plunge but took a pullback immediately.
- 10.00am – China will release retail sales, industrial Production and Fixed Assets Investment expected to be little or no improvement – we maintain our SELL for USDCNY.
- 2.00pm – 2.45pm – German & France will release their CPI and is expected to be the same or weak. Be cautious if YOU ARE SHORTING euro. We maintain our long view BUY for EURO.
- 4.30pm – GBP will go to action with Average earnings & Employment – weakness is expected – we maintain SELL for GBP.
- 5.00pm – EURO will release their CPI and we are expecting high volatility for EURO today. German will also release their ZEW Economic Sentiment and is expected to have little or no change.
- 8.30pm – USD will release their retail sales and is an important data for the FED to determine the consumer spending. Expected to be good, also US will release Empire state Manufacturing Index and is expected little or no change.
- Tentative – important data from the US “Mortgage Delinquencies” – keep your ears and eyes open for this data release – its a leading economic indicator for the FED. We are expecting the data t be good.
- 10.00pm – US will release Business Inventories – expected to be weak. Expect little or no movement.
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