Recession risk is ‘below average’ for the next three years, Goldman says
- The U.S. economy stands only a “muted” chance of falling into recession over the near term and a “below average” likelihood over the next three years, Goldman Sachs says.
- Economist Daan Struyven modeled the current run, which is just 10 months away from being the longest expansion in history.
- He cautioned that a sudden growth spurt could change things and switch the recovery from midcycle to late cycle. Read More @ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/recession-risk-below-average-for-the-next-three-years-goldman-says.html
Canadian Dollar Surges on New NAFTA Replacement
The Canadian dollar surged sharply against other major currencies on Monday, extending its rise from late last week, as President Trump aggressively promoted the newly-struck U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) as an “extraordinary” replacement for the longstanding North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Prior to the deal being finalized over the weekend, the past several weeks had been fraught with uncertainty over the state of U.S.-Canada trade relations. The U.S. had already struck a trade deal with Mexico in August, which seemed to leave Canada – the third NAFTA partner – as the odd one out. This shaky status for Canada helped keep consistent pressure on the Canadian dollar against its major counterparts, including the relatively strong U.S. dollar. Read More @ https://www.investopedia.com/news/canadian-dollar-surges-new-nafta-replacement/
US Dollar Refuses to Die as Global Reserve Currency — But Loses Ground
Chinese RMB gains, but is inconsequential as central banks remain leery. Euro hangs on.
Those who’re eagerly awaiting the end of the “dollar hegemony,” or the end of the dollar as the top global reserve currency, well, they’ll need some patience, because it’s happening at a glacial pace – according to the IMF’s just released data on the “Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves” (COFER) for the second quarter 2018. What it confirms: Global central banks are ever so slowly losing their appetite for being over-exposed to US-dollar-denominated assets, though they’re not dumping them from their foreign exchange reserves; they’re just tweaking them. Read More @ https://wolfstreet.com/2018/09/30/us-dollar-global-reserve-currency-hegemony-chinese-rmb-yuan-euro/
WHAT IS THE USD INDEX SAYING?
This week NFP will be clearer for USD – but for now USD dominates the market – today the exchange rate for USD vs PESO is 54.30 – very close to our target if 55. FED is likely to increase rate again in December and that will push all Asia currencies to the south. Be cautious if you are trying to short the USD. USD is still a demand even after China by-pass the Petro-dollar. What really makes the USD strong? https://wolfstreet.com/2018/09/30/us-dollar-global-reserve-currency-hegemony-chinese-rmb-yuan-euro/
Also US economy is back to shape after massive debts and QE – US Stock Market is also all time high with massive earnings from SP500 companies. Now is all about watch and see – WHAT’S NEXT?
TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES.
- 12.30pm – RBA will release rate statement and Cash Rate – expect massive volatility in favor for AUD.
- 1.00pm – Japan will release their consumer confidence and is expected to be good.
- 4.30pm – UK will release construction PMI – expect volatility in favor of GBP.
- ALL DAY – EURO MEETINGS be cautious as you can expect EUR volatility anytime.
- 10.00pm – Member of FOMC will speak and volatility is expected in favour of the USD.
The market is wait and see now if the USD breaks the $95 INDEX. Be cautious and always have money management in place at all times.
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