As US dollar rises, time to get bearish – WE STAY NEUTRAL TILL WE SEE CLEAR BEARISH PATTERN.
- While US growth remains on track, picture is worsening in most other regions
- As cross-border US dollar loans fall, Fed about to make liquidity even tighter
- The epicenter of the dollar shortage is China, as emerging markets gorge on borrowed dollars
Unlike most other currencies, the US dollar trades as a function of global growth relative to US growth. Given the wide availability of cross-border USD loans during a global upturn, more and more (borrowed) dollars chase international investment opportunities when investor sentiment is optimistic. As a result, the dollar weakens when international growth is on an accelerating trend. Read More @ https://www.marketsnow.com/analysis/as-us-dollar-rises-time-to-get-bearish
WHAT IS THE USD INDEX SAYING?
USD forming a bullish Cup & Handle for a run to $92; be cautious if you are trying to SELL the USD. Wait till the price breaks teh support of the bullish Flag.
TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES.
- 8.30am – Japan will release Final Manufacturing PMI – expected to be no change – little move is expected for the JPY.
- 12.30pm – RBA statement and Cash Rate – we are expecting a neutral statement and no change to Cash Rate; we could see some pullback to the north for AUD.
- 4.30pm – UK will release several news – PMI, Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals – we expect a mix data – we stay neutral for the GBP.
- 5.20pm – AUD will go to action – expect volatility when Gov Lowe speaks. We are expecting more downside for the AUD.
- 8.30pm – Canada will release two important news – GDP m/m & Mfg PMI – both is expected to be good. We maintain BUY for CAD.
- 9.45pm – 10.00pm – US will release PMI data and is expected to neutral or weak.
The market consolidates but in favor of the USD; NFP this Friday will take the lead for the month of May. Also there a significant good development between Israel, US and Iran over Nuclear Deal. Gold is fading away as the world embraces peace and harmony. We are also looking at Gold and see if we could catch the right price.
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