TRADE WAR – IS NEXT – WILL THE USD BREAK THE DESCENDING TRIANGLE?

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.5 percent. With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment were revised up.

Opinion: Here’s how to think clearly about the Fed, stocks, and interest rates

Interest rates are making headlines again. Are rates going up or down? Is this good news, bad news, or no news for the stock market? These are important questions and I’d like to suggest a few fundamental principles. For almost 50 years, from 1959 through 2007, the 10-year U.S. Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.26%  rate averaged 6.86% and was seldom below 4%. Since 2007, the 10-year rate has averaged 2.60% and has rarely been above 4%. The current historically low level of interest rates have led many to predict that rates will inevitably go back up to “normal” levels. Not so fast. In the 1960s, for example, mortgage rates went above 6% for the first time in anyone’s memory, leading many homebuyers to put off buying homes until mortgage rates returned to “normal” levels? They had a long wait. Mortgage rates stayed above 6% for almost 40 years. Read More @ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-to-think-clearly-about-the-fed-stocks-and-interest-rates-2018-03-28?siteid=rss&rss=1

WHAT IS THE USD INDEX SAYING?

The USD will test the descending triangle this weekend; if the USD breaks the support @ H1 Chart then is back to Downtrend – if it breaks the resistance with the Bullish flag then is heading for $90. Now is all about wait and see approach as the market gets tougher to trade.

NEWS THAT MIGHTS AFFECT YOUR TRADE

  1. ALL DAY – German Prelim CPI – Be ready fro volatility after 3pm for EUR pairs. This is an important data release for German.
  2. 3.55pm – German Unemployment Change – expected to be no change – we believe it will be good. We continue to Buy EURO.
  3. 4.30pm – UK will go to action – GBP volatility is expected we believe the data from UK will be no change – GBP will be back to uptrend later today as GDP & Current Account data will be released.
  4. 4.30pm – Keep your eyes also on Mortgage Approvals – we are expecting the data to be weak – then GBP will struggle to get back to an uptrend.
  5. 8.30pm – Canada will release their GDP and is expected to be no change. We believe the data will be good – We move from SELL to BUY CAD.
  6. 8.30pm – US will release the Personal Spending and Personal Income – expected to be no change. We are expecting the USD to move down back to below $89 at the USD INDEX.
  7. 10.00pm – UoM – Inflation and Consumer sentiment data – critical data for the FED – market expected to give some good volatility for the USD. Expected to be weak.

High Risk Investment Warning:

Please note that Forex and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss, It is not suitable for all traders and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, it is recommended that you seek an independent advice, if necessary

2 Comments
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