JPMorgan Says Unusual Market Could Mean ‘Buy in May’
Established patterns seem to be out the window as bonds and equities move in tandem; stock prices climb along with volatility; shares fall despite strong earnings; and money is flowing out of U.S. equities during the time of the year inflows are usually the strongest. All that means the standard advice of “sell in May” should be converted to “buy in May,” JPMorgan strategists Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan wrote in a note Tuesday. Systematic investors are likely to reenter the market after selling $300 billion of equities this year if volatility can stay contained and the market makes modest gains, the strategists wrote. They see three-month price momentum likely turning positive early this month, which could result in as much as $50 billion of buying by trend followers. Read More @ https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2018-05-01/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-says-unusual-market-could-mean-buy-in-may
Oil falls on firmer dollar but Iran sanction fears limit losses – USD RISE.
The U.S. dollar .DXY surged into positive territory for 2018 and broke past key levels against several currencies as a divergence between growth and the interest rate outlook versus other countries spurred investors to chase the currency higher. [USD/] A strong dollar makes greenback-denominated oil more expensive to holders of other currencies. “The strength of the dollar is where the pressure is coming from,” said Gene McGillian, vice president at Tradition Energy. Read More @ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-falls-on-firmer-dollar-but-iran-sanction-fears-limit-losses-idUSKBN1I22M0
WHAT IS THE USD INDEX SAYING? – CUP & HANDLE HAS TAKEN OFF FOR A BULLISH RUN. RALLY IS CONFIRMED.
USD is for sure have a great breakout; USD awaits FED announces of more rate hike this year then it was actually planned. Oil is also at risk of a fall after the USD rallied. The question now is all about the Rate hike this WEEK. Friday NFP will be a great watch for the USD to break new highs to the north. Be cautious if you are against the USD for now.
TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES.
- 6.45am – NZD will go to action with employment change; more downside awaits after breaking the critical support.
- 9.45am – China will release the CAIXIN PMI – expected to be neutral or weak; we are watching the reaction of USDCNH pair. We are waiting to SELL.
- 1.00pm – Japan will release the Consumer confidence and we are expecting it to be good.
- 3.50pm – 4.00pm – Euro will release Euro, Italy, Germany and France PMI – it looks like is a standstill or a mix report for EURO. We are cautious Buying EURO as it breaks the EQ FIBO yesterday. We await the FED announcement tomorrow early morning before we decide to bUY EURO once again.
- 4.30pm – UK will release their Construction PMI – which is expected to be good; yesterday bad MFG PMI drag the GBP LOWER. Today could be a pullback before FED announcement of a rate hike early tomorrow morning.
- 5.00pm – EURO will release – GDP data together with Italy which is expected to be no change; little or no movement is expected.
- 8.15pm – Volatility is expected but will be contained as all await FED RATE.
- 10.30pm – If you are trading Oil – keep your eyes on the Inventories which is expected to be good for oil.
- 11.30pm – Weidmann speaks and EURO expected to make some move but will be contained due to FED RATE at 2am Hong Kong Time.
- 2.ooam Thursday – FED IS EXPECTED TO HIKE THE RATE – USD IS EXPECTED TO RALLY BUT WE WILL BE CAUTIOUS TILL THE NEWS IS OVER. BE CAUTIOUS AND ALWAYS HAVE GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT IN PLACE.
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