Powell’s Fed Faces a New Question About Inflation

Under the leadership of former chair Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve successfully identified 2017’s slowdown in inflation as transitory. Now with tariffs threatening to accelerate inflation, the Fed faces the opposite question: Is faster inflation just another transitory phenomenon? If Yellen’s successor, Jerome Powell, can’t repeat her ability to distinguish between persistent and temporary inflationary forces, then expect the ride to get much bumpier, ending with either a recession or high inflation — or a combination of both. Read More @ https://www.bloombergquint.com/view/2018/07/12/the-fed-faces-a-new-question-about-inflation

Threat of trade war blamed for fall in UK, EU growth forecasts

‘No winners, only casualties’ if US imposes further tariffs, European commission warns;  The European commission has cut its growth forecasts for the UK and Europe this year, blaming the threat of a trade war with the US, which it warned would produce “no winners, only casualties”. Britain will slump to the bottom of the EU league table for growth in 2018, the commission said, as it is “particularly exposed” to an escalation of trade tensions and while Brexit uncertainty persists. Growth in the EU is now expected to be 2.1% in 2018, compared with 2.3% in the commission’s spring forecast and 2.4% in 2017. Its forecast for growth in 2019 was unchanged at 2%. Read More @ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/12/trade-war-blamed-fall-uk-eu-growth-forecast-european-commission

WHAT IS THE USD SAYING?

USD is forming a H&S at the Resistance – yesterday GDP don’t look exciting and USD should have a PULLBACK today before the next rally. Initial Ascending Triangle pattern is completed. We stay neutral till the Price moves.

TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES TODAY.

  1. Tentative China will release their Trade Balance and US-Denomintaed Trade Balance – expected to be good.
  2. 2.00pm – German will release there WPI – It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when wholesalers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. Expected to be good.
  3. 8.30pm – US will release their import prices – Low impact and there will little or no movement.
  4. 10.00pm – US will release Prelim Consumer sentiment and inflation – expected to be no change. We stay neutral.

The market will continue to swing and consolidate till Trade War settles down; be cautious and always put money management as your priority.

High Risk Investment Warning:

Please note that Forex and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss, It is not suitable for all traders and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, it is recommended that you seek an independent advice, if necessary.

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