What a full out trade war would cost the global economy

  • J.P. Morgan’s John Normand believes that a worst-case scenario over trade could reduce global growth by a “material” amount of at least 1.4 percent over two years.
  • Though Normand acknowledged that worst-case fears have yet to materialize, J.P. Morgan added that global growth could slow by 0.4 percent if countries targeted by the U.S. respond with equivalent tariffs.
  • That scenario appears more like the one President Donald Trump finds himself stuck in after Canada started collecting duties on U.S. orange juice, whiskey and yogurt on Sunday. Read More @ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/what-a-full-out-trade-war-would-cost-the-global-economy.html

JPMorgan Warns a Trade War May Trigger China Corporate Defaults

An escalation of trade tensions could add to defaults in China’s financial system, which is already in the midst of a deleveraging campaign, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. If U.S. President Donald Trump imposes sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports later this week, there will be spinoff effects on the country’s financial sector, according to Jing Ulrich, JPMorgan’s vice chairman for Asia Pacific. Consumer demand and the wider economy are likely to weaken and that “may translate into worse credit quality down the road,” Ulrich said in a Friday interview in Hong Kong. Read More @ https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2018-07-02/jpmorgan-warns-a-trade-war-may-trigger-china-corporate-defaults


“W” Bullish still remains for an upward drive and move. We will be cautious as this week is the NFP and is expected to be good data. If the price breaks the ascending triangle then we will SELL the USD. Meantime USD still remains BUY.


  1. 9.30am – Building approvals is a leading indicator for traders. Expected to be weak.
  2. 12.30pm – RBA will decide on the rate – expected to be no change as the market remains fragile – AUD has lots more downside – however today we are expecting a PULLBACK.
  3. 2.45pm – 3.00pm – France and Spain news – expected to be weak. We remain neutral for EURO.
  4. 4.30pm – UK will release their construction PMI and is expected to be good. We buy GBP.
  5. 5.00pm – EURO will release their Retail sales – no change expected.
  6. 9.30pm – CAD will release their Manufacturing PMI – expected to be good. We buy CAD.
  7. 10.00pm – US will release Car Sales and factory orders – is a leading indicator in the beginning of the month and it actually shows the strength of the economy and consumer spending – we are expecting good data.

High Risk Investment Warning:

Please note that Forex and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss, It is not suitable for all traders and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, it is recommended that you seek an independent advice, if necessary.

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