G10 FX Week Ahead: Can the Fed save the dollar?

The highlight of the week ahead will be the release of the January FOMC minutes, a host of Fed speakers and then the semi-annual monetary policy report. Can the Fed turn this dollar bear trend around? 

We’re clearly witnessing a weak dollar environment, with early signs that investors are demanding concessions (both in FX and yields) to hold US bonds. After a  market holiday on Monday, the US focus will shift back to the Fed story. The minutes of the Jan FOMC meeting are released on Wed, with several Fed speakers then to be heard before the release of the semi-annual monetary policy report on Friday. This is all preparation for the main event on Feb 28th, when new chair Powell testifies to Congress.
While the Fed tone may be a little more hawkish, a lot of Fed tightening is already priced this year, thus the dollar need not rally. In the EZ, we’ll also see ECB minutes (Thurs) plus German IFO and flash Feb PMIs across the Eurozone. ECB minutes may try to exaggerate concerns over FX volatility, but we suspect any EUR/USD correction proves temporary – and that EUR/USD could test a big trendline just above 1.2650. Read More @ https://think.ing.com/articles/g10-fx-week-ahead-can-the-fed-save-the-dollar/

The Year of the Dog Begins and Gold Gains 3% On the Week

The Chinese New Year, also known as the Spring Festival begins today initiating the year of the dog. Trading was quiet in Asia as markets closed in observance of this holiday.

Substantial weekly gains characterized gold pricing as the U.S. dollar index lost ground throughout the trading week. Gold futures (April 2018 contract) had significant gains trading from the lows on Monday at $1,317 per ounce, to its current pricing at $1,351.20. Gaining approximately $34 in trading this week, the vast majority of those gains were the result of a sizable upside spike on Wednesday which added over $20 in value, with a range of $39.


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