Morgan Stanley Stays Bullish on the Dollar Amid Trade Tensions

Morgan Stanley is sticking to its bullish stance on the dollar, citing a resilient U.S. economy and bets for rising interest rates. The bank also expects tariff negotiations to lead to a positive outcome that will allow America’s trade deficit to narrow.

Risk markets should recover as there is little reason for them to react to growth concerns at a time when the U.S and Chinese economies are performing well, strategists including Hans W Redeker wrote in an April 5 note. The dollar “will see the initial positive reaction to rebounding risk appetite, with U.S. rates expectations lending support,” they wrote.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has extended losses this year after declining 8.5 percent in 2017, hurt by simmering U.S. trade tensions and concern over America’s deficits. China said Friday it would counter U.S. protectionism “to the end, and at any cost,” after President Donald Trump ordered his administration to consider tariffs on an additional $100 billion in Chinese goods. Read More @ https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/04/06/morgan-stanley-stays-bullish-on-the-dollar-amid-trade-tensions

WHAT IS THE USD SAYING?

USD is expected to rally tonight as the NFP data is expected to be good.

TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES

  1. 8.30pm – Canada will release employment change and is expected to be good; due the NFP that data will be very much dependent on NFP.
  2. 8.30pm – US will release Average hourly earnings and NFP – we are expecting the both data to be good. We stay neutral till the market makes its move. We are still not in favor of the USD. We let the USD to makes its move before we sell.
  3. 11.15pm – UK BOE Carney will speak and is expected to be hawkish – we maintain BUY for GBP.
  4. Saturday 1.30am – FED Chairman will speak and is expected to be hawkish – be cautious of the USD volatility.

The market will be cautious today – expect volatility during NFP but we believe overall the USD will takes is downturn after the rally today.

High Risk Investment Warning:

Please note that Forex and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss, It is not suitable for all traders and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, it is recommended that you seek an independent advice, if necessary

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