House price drop could prompt interest rate fall – economist

Market expectations are for the Reserve Bank to hold its official cash rate steady this year or to increase it, but a contrary view put forward by Australia’s Capital Economics suggests rates may actually fall, with a cooling real estate market acting as a catalyst. Forecasts from the big four banks range from two hikes this year to none all until late 2019. Interest rate market pricing suggests that there is an 85 per cent chance of an official cash rate hike by the end of 2018, with further increases expected beyond that. Read More @

This could the beaten-down U.S. dollar’s route to a rebound, Morgan Stanley says; but we think otherwise – USD is for further correction to $89 @ the index.

Many a currency strategist is bracing for prolonged U.S. dollar weakness due to upbeat global growth expectations and signs central banks around the world are moving toward ending ultraloose monetary policies. Still, the greenback might have one more trick up its sleeve according to Morgan Stanley analysts, and it all comes down to international trade. Read More @

What is going to happen this week?

Friday was a case of another day, another US dollar slide (plus new record closing highs for both the S&P500 and NASDAQ, but that almost goes without saying these days).


  • Politically-driven EUR and GBP gains drive DXY USD index to lowest level since December 201
  • US core CPI springs upside surprise (0.3%) as too US retail sales once revisions accounted for…
  • …but you’d never know it looking at Friday’s US price action
  • AUD likely headed back above 0.80+ following clean breach of 0.7880-90 resistance Read More @


1.15pm – UK MPC Member will speak and could move the GBP pairs – GBP has more upper movement today.

4.00pm – New Zealand will release their Business confidence report and is expected to be good – but do remember rate cut or rate no change remains a bearish movement for NZD moving forward.

6.50pm – Japan will release the PPI data and is expected to be good; more upside awaits for JPY this week.

7.30pm – Monday will end with Australia release their motor sales and is expected to be neutral or weak; we are cautious for AUD pairs till there is a clear breakout. Read More @

Do remember today is US holiday and do expect the market to range rather then any massive volatility accept for EURO Pairs. See chart below – more downside awaits for USD.

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