The dollar may need fresh impetus to drive higher in the near term, analysts say
The U.S. dollar lacks a catalyst as the dog days of summer take hold of markets, with currency experts believing those doldrums may result in a fresh stretch of weakness for bucks. Some dollar bears cite a lack of enthusiasm around of an otherwise solid second-quarter reading of gross domestic product GDP, which came in at a whopping annualized 4.1%. However, fears that the stellar output, partly driven by a surge in exports on the back of U.S.-China tariff clashes, has overshadowed nearly the best rate of economic expansion in about four years, with the dollar weakening after the closely followed GDP report on Friday. “The U.S. economic growth rate seems to be peaking, and the same applies for corporate profitability,” wrote Morgan Stanley strategists Hans W. Redeker and Gek Teng Khoo. Read More @ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dollar-may-need-fresh-impetus-to-drive-higher-in-the-near-term-analysts-say-2018-08-01
BoE Super Thursday to live up to its name
Super Thursday promises to live up to its name one way or another this week, as the Bank of England either raises interest rates to post-financial crisis highs or risks causing unnecessary and significant market volatility.
- Rate hike priced in but not guaranteed
- Possible scenarios on Thursday
- Key things to look out for
It’s been an unusual lead up to a central bank meeting, in that despite a lack of clear and specific warning signals, the likes of which we’ve become accustomed to, investors have become absolutely convinced it’s happening. In fact, markets are now pricing in almost a 90% chance that the Monetary Policy Committee will vote to hike rates on Thursday. If the central bank doesn’t hike now, it will need a very good excuse and even then, this entire process of forward guidance will once again be heavily criticised. – Read More @ https://www.marketpulse.com/20180801/boe-super-thursday-live-name/
OIL IS IN TROUBLE ONCE AGAIN – Iran readying massive military exercise in Persian Gulf, officials say
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard forces are expected to begin a major exercise in the Persian Gulf as soon as within the next 48 hours that could be aimed at demonstrating their ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, according to two US officials directly familiar with the latest US assessment of IRGC troop movements. “We are aware of the increase in Iranian naval operations within the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. We are monitoring it closely, and will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation and free flow of commerce in international waterways,” Captain William Urban, chief spokesman for US Central Command, told CNN. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically critical passageway linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea that is crucial to international shipping and particularly for global energy supplies. Read More @ https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/01/politics/us-iran-military-exercise-gulf/index.html
WHAT IS THE USD SAYING?
USD stays firm @ 94.50 and waiting for fresh news once again; the key economic indicators are all looking towards a fresh move ahead towards the north.
TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES.
- 9.30am – AUD will go to action with the Trade Balance data. Expected to be good.
- 4.30pm – UK will release their Construction PMI – volatility expected.
- 7.00pm – BOE will release their official vote for rate hike – expected to be in favor for GBP Pairs.
- 7.30pm – BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak and the market is expected to be volatile. GBP especially.
- 10.00pm – US will focus on factory order – in favor of the USD.
The market is still fragile with Turkey lira in trouble again @ https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/2018/08/01/lira-falls-to-record-as-prospect-of-u-s-sanctions-draws-closer#gs.JTuvfrY. The market is also concern over Iran aggressive action @ https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/01/politics/us-iran-military-exercise-gulf/index.html.
Be cautious and always put money management as your priority.
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