Debate over Fed meeting centers on just two words
An interesting argument has sprung up among Fed watchers: Will the central bank add the phrase “for now” to its forward guidance that further gradual interest rates are likely? Adding the phrase is seen as a possibility especially since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell introduced it in his recent monetary policy testimony before Congress when he asserted the Fed’s plans to gradually raise interest rates “for now.” Dean Maki, chief economist at Point72 Asset Management, said he didn’t think the phrase would make it into the statement, saying it was only added to show that the Fed’s gradual rate hike plans were not fixed in stone. Read More @ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/debate-over-fed-meeting-centers-on-just-two-words-2018-07-31
China Factory Gauge Cools as Trump Trade Tensions Begin to Bite
China’s official factory gauge cooled this month as the impact of trade turbulence with the U.S. on confidence and the currency began to bite. The manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 51.2 in July from 51.5 in June and a tad lower than the forecast of 51.3 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, stood at 54, the statistics bureau said Tuesday, compared with 55 in June. Levels above 50 indicate improvement. Factories are faced with challenges both at home and abroad, with slower credit growth denting demand and the imposition of the first round of tariffs in the trade war with the U.S. The government last week unveiled a package of fiscal support including tax cuts and acceleration of bond issuance for infrastructure investment, and there are signs the campaign to curb leverage is being softened. Read More @ https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/07/31/china-factory-gauge-falls-on-tighter-credit-trade-war-risks#gs.JTNjZak
U.S., China Seek to Restart Talks to Defuse Trade War, Sources Say
The U.S. and China are trying to restart talks aimed at averting a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies, two people familiar with the effort said. Representatives of U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He are having private conversations as they look for ways to reengage in negotiations, according to the people who spoke about the deliberations on condition of anonymity. They cautioned that a specific timetable, the issues to be discussed and the format for talks aren’t finalized, but added there was agreement among the principals that more discussions need to take place. Read More @ https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/07/31/u-s-china-said-to-seek-to-restart-talks-to-defuse-trade-war#gs.tN2gutM
WHAT IS THE USD SAYING?
USD stays firm before the FOMC meeting early tomorrow meeting; we expect some big jumps for the USD. Be cautious as the USD can go either way.
TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES.
- 9.45am – China will release their CAIXIN manufacturing PMI – AUD, CNH & NZD expected to move.
- 3.15pm – 4.30pm – SPAIN, FRANCE, ITALY, GERMANY and EURO – will release their PMI – we expect little or no change.
- 4.30pm – UK will release their PMI and is expected to be good – expect volatility.
- 8.15pm – ADP – US will release their ADP data and is expected to be in favor of the USD. Expect Volatility.
- 10.00pm – US will release their ISM MFG – is expected to be good.
- 10.30pm – US will release the oil inventory – expected to be in favor for the oil.
Overall the market will be cautious till THURSDAY 2AM FOMC minutes will be released – expect massive volatility. Be always careful with your money management.
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