Fed Is Intent on Raising Rates Even If Economy Sours

Recent speeches by Federal Reserve policy makers make clear that they have reduced their reliance on estimates of the long run neutral level of interest rates as a guide for monetary policy. Going forward, market participants will need to more closely scrutinize the central bank’s Summary of Economic Projections for clues as to where rates may be headed.  Those forecasts currently point to a fairly hawkish path for monetary path. Not only do they indicate policy will eventually turn restrictive, but they also suggest policy will remain restrictive even as economic growth slows. In other words, the Fed doesn’t anticipate turning tail on their policy path even if the economy dips next year. Read More @ https://www.bloombergquint.com/view/fed-is-intent-on-raising-rates-even-if-economy-sours#gs.Pb_Awgk

Stronger GDP, inflation and income growth: HSBC says the sliding Aussie dollar will see the RBA hike rates far sooner than many think

  • It’s now been over 27 years since Australia’s last recession. The floating Australian dollar has been a big factor in this impressive run of continued economic expansion.
  • HSBC says the weaker Aussie dollar this year is working its magic for the economy once again, helping to boost Australia’s trade-exposed sectors, national incomes, as well as inflationary pressures. It says the RBA will be pleased with recent events, and says the bank will start to lift official interest rates in the June quarter of 2019.
  • It forecasts the AUD/USD will bottom out at .6800, down from .7080 at present.

It’s now been over 27 years since Australia’s last recession. Read More @ https://www.businessinsider.com.au/fx-currency-aud-rba-cash-rate-forecast-hsbc-2018-10

The European Central Bank could hike rates earlier than expected, El-Erian warns

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) could be prompted to raise interest rates sooner than planned against a backdrop of inflation and divergent monetary policy, according to Allianz’s Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian.
  • “It wouldn’t surprise me if they (the ECB) start hiking in the middle of summer (2019), as opposed to the end of the summer, or even the beginning of the summer. But they’re going to retain optionality ’til the very last moment,” El-Erian told CNBC’s Nancy Hungerford Tuesday. Read More @ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/the-european-central-bank-could-hike-rates-earlier-than-expected-el-erian-warns.html

WHAT IS THE USD SAYING TODAY?

USD as expected yesterday takes a correction and CNH is the main player for this month as the focus will be currency depreciation and China DEBT & Printing of money. USD is now $95 focus.

TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES

  1. 2.00pm – Japan will release their Prelim Machine Tool Orders – expected to be good.
  2. 2.45pm – 4.00pm – France & Italy will release their industrial Production – both are expected to be good.
  3. 4.30pm – UK will release their GDP and we are expecting to be good; volatility is expected.
  4. 5.00pm – UK MPC Member Haldane speaks – volatility is expected.
  5. 8.30pm – US will release their core PPI – It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer – expected to be no change or weak.
  6. 10.00pm – US will release their Final Wholesale Inventories – expected to be no change or weak.

Be aware that the market is still fragile and price can and will swing any direction; have good money management and be patient trading.

High Risk Investment Warning:

Please note that Forex and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss, It is not suitable for all traders and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, it is recommended that you seek an independent advice, if necessary.

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