Six months after the last big move, traders are getting ready for another round of volatility soon
- Traders have been betting against the CBOE Volatility Index, a popular gauge of market fear that goes up when the stock market falls.
- However, a shift in sentiment is appearing, with futures contracts pointing to a 25 percent spike in the VIX over the next several months.
- Strategist David Bianco anticipates the market could fall up to 9 percent as volatility increases during autumn. Read @ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/traders-are-getting-ready-for-another-round-of-volatility-soon.html
Wall Street’s Jim Paulsen: 4% economic growth for much longer might actually be a negative for stocks
- The best quarterly economic growth in four years may be “too good” and lead to an eventual market drag, the Leuthold strategist says.
- The government on Wednesday said the U.S. economy grew at a stronger-than-expected revised 4.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter. Read @ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/jim-paulsen-4-percent-growth-for-much-longer-might-be-a-negative-for-stocks.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
The Fed Should Prepare for the Unexpected
Officials at the U.S. Federal Reserve are grappling with an important issue: how to deal with the possibility that the economy doesn’t act the way they expect it to. Judging from their analyses, different risks will require different responses — and at least one concern isn’t getting enough attention. Managing uncertainty was among the big topics of last weekend’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, hosted by the Kansas City Fed. Jerome Powell, the new chair of the Board of Governors, emphasized the wide range of uncertainty associated with the Fed’s baseline models. In a separate research paper, a number of high-ranking Fed staffers explored what policy makers should do when they’re not sure how worker scarcity will affect inflation. Read @ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-fed-should-prepare-for-the-unexpected-1.1130279
WHAT IS THE USD SAYING?
USD stays put; will the USD break the support tonight? Yesterday the preliminary GDP was at 4.2% above the analyst prediction. NAFTA deal with Mexico and Canada might just help USD to go down.
TODAYS NEWS THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL TRADES TODAY.
- 9.00am – New Zealand will release their Business Confidence and is expected to be weak.
- 9.30am – Australia will release their Capital Expenditure, Building approvals and New Home sales and is expected to be weak – we maintain neutral for AUD.
- 2.00pm – Germany will release their prelim CPI data – we are expecting some improvement. Expect Volatility in favor for EURO.
- 3.00pm – Spain will release their CPI and is expected no change.
- 3.55pm – German will release their Unemployment change and is expected to be good.
- 4.30pm – UK will release Mortgage approvals – Tends to have a muted impact because about 60% of all mortgages are covered by the BBA Mortgage Approvals data released a few days earlier. Little or no movement expected.
- 8.30pm – Canada will release their GDP M/M and is expected to be weak but we think otherwise. We buy CAD.
- 8.30pm – US will release their Personal income, Personal Spending and Unemployment – expect little or no change from teh previous months. We maintain SELL for USD.
Overall the market still remains uncertain with Trade War and all time high markets and with masse DEBTS. We remain SELL for USD for now. Always keep money management as your priority.
High Risk Investment Warning:
Please note that Forex and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss, It is not suitable for all traders and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, it is recommended that you seek an independent advice, if necessary.