US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN INTENSIFIES
The government shutdown could take a bite out of the economy — depending on how long it lasts.
Even if the shutdown drags on, it is likely to have only a limited impact. The 16-day shutdown in 2013 was the costliest shutdown in the nation’s history — $20 billion, according to an estimate from Moody’s Analytics. Official government figures suggest it reduced gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, by 0.3 percentage points. Read More @ http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/22/news/economy/economic-impact-shutdown/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom
CANADA NIGHTMARE MIGHT JUST BE AROUND THE CORNER. (Canada GDP is 80% from US Business) – USDCAD we maintain SELL – as we believe Trump will keep NAFTA and will not shake the boat.
The NAFTA trade agreement’s future hangs in the balance this week as negotiators from the United States, Canada and Mexico try to settle major differences over revamping a pact that President Donald Trump has threatened to abandon.Senior officials from the three nations will meet in Montreal for a week starting on Tuesday in the sixth and penultimate round of talks to modernize the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump, who entered office last year pledging to undo what he described as disastrous trade deals, has portrayed NAFTA as grossly unfair to the United States and its workers. Read More @ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-nafta/naftas-fate-uncertain-ahead-of-montreal-round-of-talks-idUSKBN1FB27R
CANADA PREPARES FOR WORST CASE SCENARIO – Canada prepares for worst in case of U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA
Canada is preparing for the worst in case U.S. President Donald Trump decides to pull his country out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), said a Canadian NAFTA advisor on Sunday. “The consensus felt like it’s not if, it’s when he’s going to pull the plug,” said Rona Ambrose, member of Canada’s NAFTA advisory council and former interim leader of the Conservative Party and the leader of the opposition between 2015 and 2017. Read More @ http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/22/c_136914728.htm
OIL IS OVER-VALUED AND IS TIME TO SHORT THE OIL – WAIT FOR TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN FIRST.
Unless there is a notable geopolitical shock, traditional oil producers should treat the recent oil-price gains as a temporary windfall, not a permanent state of affairs. To prolong the price recovery as long as possible, they should reinforce their collective production discipline. Read More @ https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/opec-oil-price-shaky-recovery-by-mohamed-a–el-erian-2018-01
USD INDEX TECHNICAL CHART – MOVING SOUTH IS A DONE DEAL.
NEWS TODAY THAT MIGHT AFFECT YOUR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- 2.30pm – BOJ conference and other news along the way – be ready for a good volatility for all JPY pairs – we are expecting the JOY to strengthen rather then the opposite.
- 5.30pm – Public Sector Net Borrowings from UK – we believe the data will be good – we maintain buy for GBPUSD.
- 6.00pm – German ZEW economic Sentiment should be all good – we maintain BUY for EURUSD.
- 11.00pm – EUR will release consumer confidence – we believe the confidence in EURO is back.
- ALL DAY – Be cautious as MERKEL (GERMAN) – is still fight for a government – things may turn around if there is no deal.
Overall the market is still in favor of Buying EURO, GOLD, GBP & JPY and SELL USD. Always maintain good money management.
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