USDCNH IS BACK TO 6.30 – AND THERE ARE MORE DEMAND FOR CNH RATHER THEN THE USD.
China will be the next biggest developed country in the world which will dominate both the export and consumer market. –
Fundamentally based on this news the USD should rally but it didn’t; it clear shows that market is looking at different direction as a safe haven instead of the USD.
The hotter-than-expected consumer price data for January adds to a growing expectation among economists that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates with four quarter-point moves this year, rather than the three they penciled in last December, economists said. “I think this does cement the four rate hikes, given the inflation backdrop,” said Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden &Rygel, an investment management firm based in Los Angeles. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in January, the biggest monthly increase since August 2012. Core CPI rose 0.3%. Read More @ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cpi-has-market-locking-in-march-rate-hike-and-moving-toward-4-fed-hikes-this-year-2018-02-14
EUR HAS ONE DIRECTION – THAT’S UP THIS YEAR!!
Draghi faces an impossible task to weaken the euro — and he might not even try
- Analysts believe that Draghi wouldn’t be able to talk down the euro, even if he wanted to.
- The euro has risen nearly 3 percent against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year.
- In January, flash data suggested that inflation grew at 1.3 percent. Read More @ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/draghi-faces-an-impossible-task-to-weaken-the-euro.html
What is the Technical Charts saying?
USD will continue to be under pressure.
Today’s news that might affect your technical trades
- Chinese New Year tomorrow will put the market to a slowdown mood; China goes for Holiday.
- 8.30am – Australia will release their employment data which is expected to be weak. We stay neutral after yesterday rally of the AUD.
- 5 – 6pm – Italy and EURO – will release their Trade Balance and we are expecting a good data. We continue to maintain BUY for EURO.
- 9.30pm – Canada will release their employment data and we are expecting the data to be good. We maintain SELL for USDCAD.
- 9.30pm – Empire State Manufacturing Index together with Philly Index will be release and we are expecting both data to be no change or weak. We continue to SELL USD till $88 at the Index.
Overall the market is not convinced with yesterday CPI data and also the FED response to 4th rate hike this year. Tax reform and make America Great again and protectionism is still on the table and the world is not asking for USD anymore but looking towards China for leadership and direction. USD is at the tipping point and we will look for a BUY when the Index goes to $88.
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