WAITING FOR THE FED – GOLD
Although the probability of a rate hike at the conclusion of this month’s FOMC meeting next week is extremely high, traders, analysts, and investors continue to have a wait-and-see attitude. The countdown clock on the CME’s FedWatch tool currently reads: 4 days, 19 hours, 9 minutes and counting, as of 3:51 PM Eastern standard time today. Currently, the probability that the Fed will announce a rate hike stands at 94.4%, according to this tool. The current estimate of 94.4% predicts a 25-basis point hike (1/4 %) which would take Fed funds rate from 125 – 150 to 150 – 175. Moreover, there’s only a 5.6% probability that the current Fed funds rate will stay intact. This number is down considerably from the probability given from the FedWatch tool one month ago on February 16. At that time, it was indicated that there was an 18.3% chance that the Federal Reserve would stay the course in keeping interest rates where they are. Last month this tool predicted an 81.7% probability that a rate hike would result from this month’s meeting. The belief that an interest rate hike is inevitable, coupled with a consistent and strong risk-on environment favoring equities, a strengthening U.S. dollar, as well as a geopolitical environment that is relatively muted and calm, continue to pressure the safe haven asset group. READ MORE @ http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-03-16/Waiting-on-The-Fed.html
U.S. Shale Drillers To Become Profitable For The First Time – OF COS WITH THE CHEAP USD.
U.S. oil companies have stepped up their hedging for 2018 production, locking in sales at higher prices. In the fourth quarter, U.S. producers increased the share of their 2018 output secured under hedges to 48 percent, up from just 30 percent in the third quarter, according to a Goldman Sachs note. “Hedging has moved from normal levels to above-normal levels, aided by an increase in oil futures (2018 WTI now $60),” the investment bank wrote. “This should allow many producers to grow, while spending within cash ?ow during 2018.” Goldman says that drillers will incrementally add more hedges for this year, and they are just beginning to do so for 2019 production. About 9 percent of 2019 production is hedged at an average price of $58 per barrel. Read More @ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Drillers-To-Become-Profitable-For-The-First-Time.html
WHAT ARE THE TECHNICAL CHARTS SAYING?
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