The US dollar surged at the end of the week, helped by a hawkish statement by a perceived dove at the Federal Reserve and dramatic drop in the Turkish lira, which spurred a broader rout in emerging markets and risk assets in general.  We remain bullish the dollar, based primarily on the US policy mix and the divergence in interest rates.

However, we suspect that the short-term market is exaggerating the systemic threat posed by Turkey.  The low credit quality, the simply terrible macroeconomic backdrop, policies that repel investors, and the erosion of the central bank’s independence mean that exposure by global funds already had been reduced.  European bank write-downs and write-offs appear manageable.  The indirect impact could aggravate situations that are already fragile, like the periphery of Europe.  (MARTOMARKET)

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