PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HAVE A POINT – The European Union, wonderful countries who treat the U.S. very badly on trade, are complaining about the tariffs on Steel & Aluminum.

The European Union, wonderful countries who treat the U.S. very badly on trade, are complaining about the tariffs on Steel & Aluminum. If they drop their horrific barriers & tariffs on U.S. products going in, we will likewise drop ours. Big Deficit. If not, we Tax Cars etc. FAIR! – PRESIDENT TRUMP.


The macro backdrop is benign.  That is to say, there is strong enough growth to absorb slack in most of the major economies and without generating the price pressures that central banks would see as requiring a stronger response.  A few weeks ago, the market ostensibly bought euros and yen on ideas that central banks are exiting there extraordinary easing More recently there has been speculation that the Fed will suggest four rate hikes instead of three this year when it meets on March 21.
On the trade front, the US bark is proving worse than the bite.  Exemptions will be given, as was the case with Bush’s 30% steel tariffs.  While the risk of a trade war has increased, it’s not the most likely scenario.   Even with China, the US rhetoric is more bombastic than supported by US actions.  The US has asked China to reduce its bilateral trade surplus with the US by a billion dollars, according to a presidential tweet, which is hardly even a rounding error on the more than $370 bln imbalance.  Despite the haranguing during the campaign, the Administration has not cited China as a currency manipulator. Read More @

Trump’s Warning Shot on Trade Risks Igniting a Wider Conflict

LONDON — In the more than seven decades since the end of the Second World War, leaders of the planet’s major economies have operated on a rough consensus that trade offers a potent form of inoculation against the outbreak of military hostilities.

The United States and its allies have constructed an economic and security order centered on the notion that communities connected by commerce have a shared interest in maintaining peace. They forged institutions focused on reducing tariffs and other impediments to trade, with the World Trade Organization as the linchpin.

But now this collective understanding is under assault by the very power that has championed it most fervently. As President Trump on Thursday delivered steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, provoking vows of retaliation from enraged producers, he risked setting off a global conflict. Read More @


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